Kanto Ninetales (Fire) is a niche Great League pick built around Ember chip damage plus Weather Ball (Fire) and Energy Ball for coverage against Steel, Grass, Ice, and Bug targets. The shadow form trades x5/6 defense for x1.2 attack, sharpening the offensive profile. Both loadouts use the same fast and charged moves so the matchup delta isolates the shadow stat tradeoff.
4,096 focal IVs x 9 shield scenarios per loadout; 78 opponents are common to all loadouts. Win rate = fraction of those simulations with a battle rating above 500 (500 is a tie). Methodology: How This Works guide.
| Base Stat | Regular | Shadow |
|---|---|---|
| Attack | 169 | 169 |
| Defense | 190 | 190 |
| Stamina | 177 | 177 |
| Move | Regular | Shadow |
|---|---|---|
| Fast | Ember (STAB) 4 pwr, 9 eg, 2t (2.00 DPT, 4.50 EPT) | Ember (STAB) 4 pwr, 9 eg, 2t (2.00 DPT, 4.50 EPT) |
| Charged 1 | Weather Ball (Fire) (STAB) 60 pwr | Weather Ball (Fire) (STAB) 60 pwr |
| Charged 2 | Energy Ball 80 pwr | Energy Ball 80 pwr |
Regular wins 46.8% of simulated matchups; Shadow wins 48.1% of simulated matchups.
| Opponent | Regular Win Rate | Shadow Win Rate | Δ (pp) | Flip? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Araquanid | 44.2% | 23.0% | +21.1 | No flip |
| Aegislash (Shield) | 77.5% | 58.4% | +19.1 | No flip |
| Quagsire (Shadow) | 62.6% | 46.1% | +16.5 | +Regular |
| Snorlax (Shadow) | 59.4% | 44.4% | +15.0 | +Regular |
| Electrode (Hisuian) | 82.0% | 69.0% | +13.0 | No flip |
| Spidops | 66.4% | 53.7% | +12.7 | No flip |
| Stunfisk | 66.2% | 54.6% | +11.6 | No flip |
| Jellicent | 44.8% | 33.3% | +11.4 | No flip |
| Diggersby | 44.9% | 33.6% | +11.3 | No flip |
| Forretress (Bug Bite) | 99.6% | 89.0% | +10.7 | No flip |
| Wartortle | 44.4% | 34.2% | +10.3 | No flip |
| Jumpluff | 87.7% | 77.8% | +9.9 | No flip |
| Forretress (Shadow) | 76.2% | 66.7% | +9.6 | No flip |
| Aegislash (Blade) | 87.0% | 77.8% | +9.2 | No flip |
| Charjabug (Shadow) | 86.8% | 77.8% | +9.1 | No flip |
| Sableye (Shadow) | 46.0% | 37.5% | +8.6 | No flip |
| Malamar | 52.5% | 44.5% | +8.0 | +Regular |
| Carbink | 17.7% | 12.0% | +5.7 | No flip |
| Bombirdier | 39.1% | 33.7% | +5.3 | No flip |
| Thievul (Sucker Punch / Night Slash+Icy Wind) | 49.8% | 44.5% | +5.2 | No flip |
| Thievul (Sucker Punch / Night Slash+Play Rough) | 49.8% | 44.5% | +5.2 | No flip |
| Ninetales (Shadow) | 51.5% | 47.1% | +4.3 | +Regular |
| Empoleon | 40.8% | 37.1% | +3.8 | No flip |
| Marowak | 34.8% | 32.6% | +2.2 | No flip |
| Dondozo | 25.7% | 23.6% | +2.2 | No flip |
| Morpeko (Full Belly) | 41.7% | 40.1% | +1.7 | No flip |
| Forretress | 77.8% | 76.2% | +1.5 | No flip |
| Azumarill | 49.8% | 48.3% | +1.5 | No flip |
| Forretress (Shadow) (Bug Bite) | 89.0% | 87.7% | +1.3 | No flip |
| Guzzlord | 10.3% | 9.4% | +0.9 | No flip |
| Altaria | 11.5% | 11.1% | +0.4 | No flip |
| Vigoroth | 33.7% | 33.3% | +0.4 | No flip |
| Annihilape | 55.6% | 55.5% | +0.1 | No flip |
| Kingdra | 11.1% | 11.1% | +0.0 | No flip |
| Turtonator | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0 | No flip |
| Corsola (Galarian) | 44.4% | 44.4% | -0.0 | No flip |
| Feraligatr (Shadow) | 55.6% | 55.6% | -0.0 | No flip |
| Fearow | 44.4% | 44.4% | -0.0 | No flip |
| Annihilape (Close Combat+Rage Fist) | 36.4% | 37.2% | -0.8 | No flip |
| Sableye | 32.5% | 33.3% | -0.8 | No flip |
| Toxapex | 21.4% | 22.2% | -0.8 | No flip |
| Annihilape (Shadow) | 55.5% | 56.8% | -1.3 | No flip |
| Oinkologne (Female) | 48.5% | 49.9% | -1.4 | No flip |
| Furret | 51.9% | 53.5% | -1.5 | No flip |
| Quagsire | 60.9% | 62.6% | -1.7 | No flip |
| Malamar (Shadow) | 44.5% | 47.4% | -2.9 | No flip |
| Ninetales | 48.4% | 51.5% | -3.0 | +Shadow |
| Blastoise | 34.6% | 37.8% | -3.2 | No flip |
| Lapras | 40.5% | 43.8% | -3.2 | No flip |
| Cramorant | 11.3% | 14.9% | -3.6 | No flip |
| Rillaboom | 63.1% | 66.7% | -3.6 | No flip |
| Corviknight (Shadow) | 74.2% | 77.9% | -3.6 | No flip |
| Mimikyu | 40.6% | 44.8% | -4.2 | No flip |
| Sableye (Mega) | 51.2% | 55.4% | -4.2 | No flip |
| Tinkaton | 88.9% | 93.3% | -4.4 | No flip |
| Corviknight | 68.1% | 74.2% | -6.1 | No flip |
| Umbreon | 47.5% | 55.6% | -8.1 | +Shadow |
| Charjabug | 77.8% | 86.8% | -9.0 | No flip |
| Malamar (Mega) | 35.3% | 44.4% | -9.1 | No flip |
| Snorlax | 44.0% | 53.6% | -9.5 | +Shadow |
| Deoxys (Defense) | 38.3% | 47.9% | -9.6 | No flip |
| Hydreigon (Shadow) | 23.6% | 33.3% | -9.7 | No flip |
| Mantine | 11.2% | 21.1% | -9.9 | No flip |
| Vigoroth (Shadow) | 33.3% | 43.8% | -10.5 | No flip |
| Melmetal | 77.8% | 88.5% | -10.7 | No flip |
| Ninetales (Alolan) | 66.7% | 77.7% | -11.0 | No flip |
| Hippowdon | 33.3% | 44.5% | -11.2 | No flip |
| Medicham | 44.3% | 55.9% | -11.6 | +Shadow |
| Clodsire | 20.7% | 33.3% | -12.5 | No flip |
| Empoleon (Shadow) | 37.1% | 49.8% | -12.8 | No flip |
| Mandibuzz | 40.2% | 55.6% | -15.4 | +Shadow |
| Cradily (Shadow) | 28.2% | 44.4% | -16.2 | No flip |
| Cradily | 11.4% | 28.2% | -16.8 | No flip |
| Araquanid (Shadow) | 23.0% | 41.2% | -18.2 | No flip |
| Hippowdon (Shadow) | 44.5% | 62.8% | -18.3 | +Shadow |
| Altaria (Shadow) | 11.1% | 30.3% | -19.1 | No flip |
| Feraligatr | 33.9% | 55.6% | -21.7 | +Shadow |
| Florges | 34.1% | 64.1% | -29.9 | +Shadow |
12 of 78 opponents flip across the 50% win line between Regular and Shadow.