Which meta matchups are decided by IVs? A 9-scenario robustness matrix, per-species cheat sheets (click a row label or a name in the meta table), and the candidate table for the Worlds 2026 open Great League meta. Format, usage corpus and sim provenance are at the foot of the page.
| Lickilicky | Quagsire (Shadow) | Quagsire | Forretress (Shadow) | Forretress | Wigglytuff | Corviknight | Empoleon | Altaria | Feraligatr | Stunfisk | Corsola (Galarian) | Azumarill | Medicham | Tinkaton | Guzzlord | Gourgeist (Super) | Togekiss | Aegislash (Shield) | Ninetales | Jumpluff | Fearow | Kingdra | Sableye (Shadow) | Jellicent | Clodsire | Furret | Altaria (Shadow) | Grumpig | Diggersby | Mantine | Thievul (NS+IW) | Thievul (IW+PR) | Greninja | Annihilape | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lickilicky | mirror | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Quagsire (Shadow) | mirror | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Quagsire | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forretress (Shadow) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forretress | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Wigglytuff | mirror | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Corviknight | mirror | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Empoleon | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Altaria | mirror | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Feraligatr | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Stunfisk | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Corsola (Galarian) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Azumarill | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Medicham | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Tinkaton | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Guzzlord | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gourgeist (Super) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Togekiss | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Aegislash (Shield) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Ninetales | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Jumpluff | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fearow | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Kingdra | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Sableye (Shadow) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Jellicent | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Clodsire | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Furret | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Altaria (Shadow) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Grumpig | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Diggersby | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Mantine | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Thievul (NS+IW) | mirror | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Thievul (IW+PR) | mirror | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Greninja | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Annihilape |
Row = the focal Pokemon (its rank-1-SP spread), column = the opponent (its top-512 SP spreads). Each cell shows all 9 shield scenarios. IV-decided cells are drawn at full strength; a cell whose outcome is settled in every tested slice (either probe spread, either cohort, either bait mode) is dimmed back - 1027 of 1190 directions are IV-decided. Never aggregated to one number.
Click any cell that has a per-pair detail page to open it - a pair earns one by being IV-decided in EITHER direction, so a dimmed cell can still be a link. A cell with no detail page opens a short note instead, with links to that pair's cheat sheet row and to the equivalent battle on pvpoke.com at PvPoke's own default IVs and movesets (not our probe spread). Hover or keyboard-focus restores a dimmed cell to full strength. Diagonal cells have no colors -- the Tier-1/Tier-2 screen never baked mirror planes -- but where a full mirror deep dive exists the cell links it (marked "mirror"; also listed under Deep joint-IV analyses below).
W beats every cohort spread ? IV-decided: the green width is the share of cohort spreads beaten (uniform over the tested cohort, not a matchmaking distribution; each side keeps a minimum 1px sliver, so near-solid means "flips only in a corner") L beats no cohort spread (an exact 500-500 tie counts as not beaten) W outlined = settled in the displayed slice but IV-contested in a corner of the tested space (max-attack probe, high-attack cohort, probe-spread flip, or full-grid evidence) -- the "IVs decide" flags name the corner. Every 3x3 grid uses PvPoke's battle-matrix layout: rows = own shields 0/1/2 top to bottom, columns = opponent shields left to right (scenario labels read own-opp, e.g. 2-1 = you keep two shields, they keep one). Bait modes apply to the FOCAL side only -- in the no-bait line the opponent still baits, so the two directions of a no-bait pair describe different battles and their sheets need not mirror. Hover (desktop) for exact spread counts and score margins; on phones the cheat sheets' W/L/? letters and IV-decided column carry the outcome. The hub matrix itself is a color-only overview -- its row links open the text-carrying cheat sheet. IV-decided pairs with baked Tier-2 grids link to a full per-pair detail page -- click the 3x3 grid itself (cheat sheets), the matrix cell (hub), or the details expander; any budget-deferred pairs are listed on the hub.
Accessibility note: the dimmed fills carry less contrast than the full-strength ones, and dimmed cells are exactly the settled ones, so nothing on this page depends on reading them. The hub matrix stays a color-only overview either way; the text alternative is the cheat sheet, reachable from each row label, from the dimmed-cell note, and from the meta table below.
Amber-screen check: of 73 sampled clean (not-flagged) pairs given the full 4096-spread treatment, 11 show some IV-dependence in the top-512 x top-512 block. Worst case, 31.1% of a focal's top-512 spreads have an outcome that depends on the opponent's IV roll in some scenario (largest mixed-cell share of a block: 0.82%). The amber flags are a screen, not a proof of settledness; detail pages select their scenarios from the full grids, not the screen.
Nothing is deferred: every IV-decided pair in the meta has a full-grid detail page.
CMP board: meta-wide charge-move-priority order with per-pair IV flip thresholds for the contested pairs.
IV explorer: enter your IVs and level, see the breakpoints you reach and the bulkpoints you hold vs all 35 entries.
Hand-picked high-usage IV-decided pairs get the full treatment: every spread of BOTH sides (4096 x 4096 x 9 shield scenarios per moveset/bait grid), closed-form breakpoints, denial tech for the other side, and a paste-your-collection checker. The cheat-sheet rows for these pairs link the same pages.
Movesets are the field-modal set when modal share >= 60%, else the PvPoke default; disagreements are shown as data. Moveset slot order shown is the order the sims ran under (PvPoke default order when the sets agree). Why each entry is in the list -- the badge system -- is at the foot of the page.
| Entry (cheat sheet) | recent usage | rank | moveset |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lickilicky dive | 36.9% | 1 | Rollout / Body Slam + Shadow Ball (field-modal 97%, n=665) |
| Quagsire (Shadow) | 26.3% | 8 | Mud Shot / Aqua Tail + Stone Edge (field-modal 62%, n=473; differs from PvPoke default) |
| Quagsire dive | 7.5% | 9 | Mud Shot / Aqua Tail + Mud Bomb |
| Forretress (Shadow) dive | 17.5% | 16 | Bug Bite / Rock Tomb + Sand Tomb (field-modal 68%, n=315; differs from PvPoke default) |
| Forretress dive | 15.9% | 11 | Volt Switch / Sand Tomb + Rock Tomb (field-modal 81%, n=286) |
| Wigglytuff dive | 33.1% | 48 | Charm / Icy Wind + Swift (field-modal 94%, n=597) |
| Corviknight dive | 29.3% | 20 | Sand Attack / Air Cutter + Payback (field-modal 94%, n=528) |
| Empoleon dive | 25.4% | 4 | Metal Sound / Hydro Cannon + Drill Peck (field-modal 96%, n=457) |
| Altaria dive | 19.8% | 3 | Dragon Breath / Sky Attack + Flamethrower (field-modal 92%, n=357) |
| Feraligatr dive | 16.3% | 15 | Shadow Claw / Hydro Cannon + Ice Beam (field-modal 93%, n=294) |
| Stunfisk dive | 18.9% | 72 | Thunder Shock / Mud Bomb + Discharge (field-modal 96%, n=341) |
| Corsola (Galarian) dive | 17.2% | 17 | Astonish / Night Shade + Power Gem (field-modal 98%, n=310) |
| Azumarill dive | 14.2% | 24 | Bubble / Ice Beam + Play Rough (field-modal 87%, n=256) |
| Medicham dive | 13.6% | 34 | Psycho Cut / Ice Punch + Dynamic Punch (field-modal 95%, n=244) |
| Tinkaton dive | 13.4% | 2 | Fairy Wind / Gigaton Hammer + Bulldoze (field-modal 87%, n=241) |
| Guzzlord dive | 13.1% | 25 | Dragon Tail / Brutal Swing + Sludge Bomb (field-modal 94%, n=236) |
| Gourgeist (Super) | 12.9% | 87 | Incinerate / Shadow Ball + Seed Bomb (field-modal 100%, n=232) |
| Togekiss | 12.0% | 114 | Peck / Psyshock + Aura Sphere (field-modal 88%, n=216) |
| Aegislash (Shield) dive | 4.5% | 67 | Psycho Cut / Shadow Ball + Gyro Ball (field-modal 98%, n=81) |
| Ninetales dive | 1.9% | 12 | Ember / Weather Ball (Fire) + Energy Ball (field-modal 65%, n=34) |
| Jumpluff dive | 0.9% | 18 | Fairy Wind / Energy Ball + Acrobatics |
| Fearow dive | 1.9% | 21 | Peck / Drill Peck + Drill Run (field-modal 97%, n=35) |
| Kingdra dive | 0.7% | 23 | Dragon Breath / Surf + Swift |
| Sableye (Shadow) | 4.7% | 31 | Shadow Claw / Foul Play + Drain Punch (field-modal 82%, n=84) |
| Jellicent dive | 11.7% | 10 | Hex / Surf + Shadow Ball (field-modal 98%, n=211) |
| Clodsire dive | 9.3% | 19 | Poison Sting / Earthquake + Stone Edge (field-modal 78%, n=167) |
| Furret dive | 10.6% | 26 | Sucker Punch / Swift + Trailblaze (field-modal 72%, n=190) |
| Altaria (Shadow) | 4.6% | 6 | Dragon Breath / Sky Attack + Flamethrower (field-modal 100%, n=83) |
| Grumpig dive | 7.2% | 41 | Psywave / Dynamic Punch + Shadow Ball (field-modal 99%, n=129) |
| Diggersby dive | 8.0% | 44 | Mud Shot / Fire Punch + Scorching Sands (field-modal 80%, n=144) |
| Mantine | 0.6% | 55 | Wing Attack / Twister + Water Pulse |
| Thievul (NS+IW) dive | 0.1% | 43 | Sucker Punch / Night Slash + Icy Wind (Icy Wind injected: the pinned sim gamemaster predates the CD) |
| Thievul (IW+PR) dive | 0.1% | 43 | Sucker Punch / Icy Wind + Play Rough (Icy Wind injected: the pinned sim gamemaster predates the CD) |
| Greninja | 0.7% | 187 | Water Shuriken / Hydro Cannon + Night Slash |
| Annihilape | 5.0% | 151 | Low Kick / Close Combat + Rage Fist (field-modal 67%, n=90; differs from PvPoke default) |
The usage top-55 that did not make the meta, plus the banned row. Collapsed-rank PLAYED* entries (see the badge section at the foot) are shown as data; we do not claim nerf vs model error.
| Candidate | recent usage | rank | why not in the meta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cradily | 9.0% | 49 | runner-up: biggest old->recent faller |
| Florges | 6.8% | 51 | below cut |
| Talonflame | 4.9% | 35 | runner-up: stays out |
| Marowak (Shadow) | 4.8% | 69 | below cut |
| Charjabug | 4.6% | 61 | below cut |
| Malamar | 4.3% | 59 | below cut |
| Moltres (Galarian) | 3.9% | 52 | runner-up: stays out |
| Clefable | 3.8% | 54 | below cut |
| Umbreon | 3.5% | 33 | below cut |
| Drapion (Shadow) | 3.4% | 62 | below cut |
| Ninetales (Alolan) | 3.2% | 64 | below cut |
| Feraligatr (Shadow) | 2.9% | 22 | below cut |
| Primeape | 2.9% | 185 | below cut |
| Lapras | 2.7% | 28 | runner-up: stays out, 0% of top cuts |
| Gastrodon | 2.6% | 63 | below cut |
| Annihilape (Shadow) | 2.2% | 164 | below cut |
| Shelgon | 2.2% | 89 | below cut |
| Ninetales (Shadow) | 2.0% | 14 | below cut |
| Talonflame (Shadow) | 1.9% | 56 | below cut |
| Steelix (Shadow) | 1.8% | 60 | below cut |
| Scizor (Shadow) | 1.8% | 310 | below cut |
| Stunfisk (Galarian) | 1.8% | 71 | below cut |
| Sableye | 1.7% | 47 | below cut |
| Blastoise | 1.6% | 53 | below cut |
| Sealeo | 1.5% | 39 | below cut |
| Malamar (Shadow) | 1.4% | 76 | below cut |
| MimikyuBANNED | 0.0% | 5 | Banned at Worlds: Play! Pokemon banned list, and Niantic states it is not eligible for the Competitors Cup (it only functions under the new turn system). PvPoke's open-GL #1, shown explicitly rather than silently omitted. Corpus sanity check: 0 Mimikyu in 21,719 roster entries across 36 captured events. |
Badge rules (mechanical): PLAYED = top-25 recent usage AND top-30 current rank; PLAYED* = top-usage but current rank sank below 30; MODEL = current top-30 rank with no meaningful tournament footprint; FORCED = editorial include. A "(rule: X)" annotation means the literal badge and the mechanical rule disagree -- live PvPoke ranks move, and an editorial badge the rule no longer awards is shown, never hidden. The entry list itself is a human decision (recorded in scripts/worlds_meta.py), not rule-derived: the badges label the chosen list mechanically, and some current top-30-rank species stayed out (see the candidates table above).
| Entry | badge | note |
|---|---|---|
| Lickilicky | PLAYED | |
| Quagsire (Shadow) | PLAYED | |
| Quagsire | PLAYED | |
| Forretress (Shadow) | PLAYED | |
| Forretress | PLAYED | |
| Wigglytuff | PLAYED* | |
| Corviknight | PLAYED | |
| Empoleon | PLAYED | |
| Altaria | PLAYED | |
| Feraligatr | PLAYED | |
| Stunfisk | PLAYED* | |
| Corsola (Galarian) | PLAYED | |
| Azumarill | PLAYED | |
| Medicham | PLAYED* | |
| Tinkaton | PLAYED | |
| Guzzlord | PLAYED | |
| Gourgeist (Super) | PLAYED* | |
| Togekiss | PLAYED* | |
| Aegislash (Shield) | FORCED | editorial include; reason on its cheat sheet |
| Ninetales | MODEL | |
| Jumpluff | MODEL | |
| Fearow | MODEL | |
| Kingdra | MODEL | |
| Sableye (Shadow) | MODEL (rule: no badge) | |
| Jellicent | PLAYED | |
| Clodsire | PLAYED | |
| Furret | PLAYED | |
| Altaria (Shadow) | PLAYED (rule: MODEL) | |
| Grumpig | PLAYED* | |
| Diggersby | PLAYED* | |
| Mantine | FORCED | editorial include; reason on its cheat sheet |
| Thievul (NS+IW) | FORCED | editorial include; reason on its cheat sheet |
| Thievul (IW+PR) | FORCED | editorial include; reason on its cheat sheet |
| Greninja | FORCED | editorial include; reason on its cheat sheet |
| Annihilape | FORCED | editorial include; reason on its cheat sheet |
Deliberately not built: team composition, lead/switch/closer roles, energy management lines, or "best 6" advice. This analysis is IV-robustness arithmetic on 1v1 sims, not necessarily expert-level competitive advice. What IS here: who beats whom across the opponent's plausible IV spreads, per shield scenario, both bait modes.
5839391a7596, gamemaster 8f1d6cca5c0f, producer c1395dfa10b9. Cohorts: opponent top-512 by stat product, plus best-SP-per-attack-IV band (labeled separately, never pooled). Focal probe spreads: rank-1 SP and max-attack within top-512. Community Day move injected for Thievul (NS+IW) (Icy Wind), Thievul (IW+PR) (Icy Wind): the pinned sim gamemaster predates that Community Day, so the move was admitted into the species pool deliberately; upstream PvPoke already lists it. Full provenance on the affected entries' cheat sheets. This project is built on PvPoke, created by Empoleon_Dynamite and released under the MIT license. The battle simulator here is a Python port of PvPoke's open-source battle logic, and all game data (the gamemaster, move stats, type chart, and meta rankings) comes from PvPoke. This project would not exist without it.